Before we
get into this weekend’s box office numbers, here’s something to keep in mind for context. Though it looks like everyone is making money, in reality,
things are not good.
If you remember, last summer was the lowest in terms of total box office gross numbers
since 2006. A large part of that was due to the World Cup, which literally kept
billions of people all over the world stuck at home in front of their
televisions. (The US ratings alone for the World Cup were huge. Just because
you like your NBA doesn’t mean that everyone else is watching it) But the other
fact was that, people were getting tired of watching the same old thing every
summer.
However, if
things were bad last year, they’re definitely looking worse so far this
summer film season. Though films such as "Furious 7," "The Avengers," "Mad Max: Fury
Road," "Perfect Pitch 2" and San Andreas have been posting excellent numbers,
so far over all ticket sales have been 13% lower than last summer. Not very
encouraging at all
But that’s
not all. Also, so far, the average second week b.o. drop-off, which happens with
every film, has been larger than usual and, according to one estimate,
something like 55% on average over all. Some films have had much smaller
drop-offs such as "PP2" and "Fury Road," but they are more the exception than the
rule.
Box office
analysts are saying that June and July could be better for this summer’s
figures, thanks to some highly anticipated films that are expected to do
extremely well, such as "Jurassic World," opening this Friday, which is expected to do well with an over $100 million weekend (I’ll go out on a limb and say
possibly $125 million).
Other soon
to be released films that could improve this summer’s outlook include Pixar’s "Inside Out," which has already gotten some of the best advance reviews for any
Pixar film in years, with some critics already saying it is one of the best
films of the year; Universal’s "Despicable Me" spin-off, "Minions;" and "Mission
Impossible: Rouge Nation," which Paramount has already been going all out for it, smelling that they have a worldwide monster hit on their
hands.
But there
were a lot of big grossing films last summer as well, and the final box office
results were a real letdown, so time will tell.
For this weekend, it’s no surprise that the Melissa McCarthy/Paul Feig comedy, "Spy," was the number one
film, but not doing as well as most advance predictions, with $30
million. Perhaps the less than expected amount could be due to the audience
getting tired of her “shtick”. You know
it by now – the loud, abrasive, foul mouthed, take no prisoners woman who cuts
any detractor down to size. No doubt a lot of her popularity comes from her aggressive
persona, which is appealing to a lot of women and men as well. But eventually
people will tire of it, and she’s going to have to stretch out. But will her
audience follow her?
As for "Entourage" – the Warners film based on the once popular HBO show – the predictions were all over
the place. At first, the consensus was that it would be the lowest grossing film
of the “big” films coming out this summer. Who would be interested in watching
a feature film version of a show that was, at most, a cult hit? And even most
of those who watched it all agree that the show had run out of gas and was
spinning its wheels for its last few seasons. Add to that the terrible reviews
the film got, and it looked like it was loser.
But when it opened on Wednesday, it made almost $6 million, and analysts re-calculated what the film could do, and started predicting that it could be the sleeper hit
of the summer.
As it
turns out, the only thing the film will do is put people to sleep, since it’s
made just $17.8 million since its Wednesday opening, and
some are saying to expect anywhere from a 60-70% drop-off the following week. But
since the budget for the film was reportedly pretty low (no A-listers talent in
any major roles), it could just wind up at least breaking even. Maybe.
The other
major release this weekend, the horror film "Insidious
Chapter 3," opened with $23 million, which puts it right in the middle of the two
previous "Insidious" films, which opened with $13
million for the first film (which went on to gross almost $50 million), and $40
million for the second (which grossed $84 million). And with a modest production budget of only
$10 million, "Chapter 3" has already doubled its production and will turn in a tidy profit for the financiers.
As for last
week’s No. 1 film, "San Andreas," it dropped over 50%, but still came in in second
place with $26 million, and it’s still a neck and neck race between "Mad Max: Fury
Road" and :Perfect Pitch 2.: Both films are well over the $100 million mark domestically
with "PP2" at $160 million, and "Fury Road" with $130 million.
However "Fury
Road" is still out beating "PP2" in worldwide grosses with the film’s tally so far
at $307 million while PP2 is at $240 million.
