Social security recipients may have to lower their expectations of the amount of benefits they will be receiving in the next year. According to CBS News, retirees are expected to receive an increase of $48 or 2.5% in 2025, which is below the 2.57% increase that was previously projected.

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a group which advocates group for senior citizens, stated that the 2025 projection is calculated by the cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, which is based on the inflation rate.

When will recipients get their 2025 social security check?

According to the latest update from the government, prices increased to 2.5% in the past 12 months. However, the official projection will be determined in October after the Social Security Administration reports the numbers. The average recipient would get a $1,968 monthly benefit if the final number amounts to an increase of 2.5%. Most recipients would get their check in January.

The Social Security Administration reviews the average inflation rate from July through September and determines the yearly COLA. The agency calculates the inflation rate using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, which tracks how much Americans spent.

Shannon Benton, executive director of TSCL, said the minimum COLA should be 3%.

“Ensuring that seniors have enough to feed and house themselves with dignity is a major reason why we advocate for a minimum COLA of 3%,” Benton said in a statement, per CBS News. “Approximately two-thirds of seniors rely on Social Security for more than half of their monthly income and 28% depend on it entirely.”