Later this year, the Supreme Court is expected to consider one of the most important cases on affirmative action in years. The court has agreed to hear an appeal to a lawsuit against Harvard University, which had been accused of discriminating against Asian American applicants through its consideration of race in its admissions process. While supporters of affirmative action worry that the conservative super-majority of the Supreme Court may strike down or severely limit affirmative action in school admissions, it is often difficult to predict the decisions of the nation’s highest court. Recently, however, the court ruled in favor of a racially-conscious high school admissions process that could signal a willingness to allow race to be considered in other school admissions processes as well.

Changing admissions policy at one of the nation's best public high schools

The Supreme Court’s ruling involved a change to the admissions policy of Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology, a magnet school in Alexandria, Va. The school, generally ranked among the top public high schools in the nation, recently announced changes to its admissions policies aimed at increasing enrollment from underrepresented minorities. The changes adopted by the Fairfax County School Board included dropping standardized tests for admission and taking into account “experience factors” relating to students’ backgrounds.

After these changes were announced, a group called Coalition for Thomas Jefferson High School claimed that the new policy was discriminatory against Asian American applicants and sued to have the changes halted. The coalition is being represented by the Pacific Legal Foundation, which has argued a number of cases before the Supreme Court. The lawsuit has been supported by other opponents of affirmative action and race-conscious admissions policies, including the Attorney General of Virginia and more than a dozen other conservative states.

Dispute over race in admissions at the center of the case

In February, a U.S. District Court judge sided with the Coalition for TJ, as the plaintiffs are called, ruling that the new admissions rules practiced illegal “racial balancing.” They point toward the drop in Asian American enrollment from 73% of students before the new rules to 54% of the incoming freshman class admitted under the policy change. Black enrollment rose from 1% to 7% and Hispanic enrollment from 3% to 11% after the change.

However, the Fairfax County School Board appealed the decision, arguing that their new policy is actually “race-blind” and thus should be allowed. “The district court simply slapped the pejorative ‘racial balancing’ label on a race-neutral measure to improve geographic, socioeconomic and racial diversity,” the school board argued. A federal appeals court sided with the school board in allowing the new admissions policies to remain in effect while the appeals process is being exhausted. The Supreme Court’s 6-3 decision to let this latest ruling stand means that Thomas Jefferson can continue using its revised policy.

Implications for upcoming affirmative action cases

With the upcoming Supreme Court case on affirmative action looming, the ruling on the Thomas Jefferson case may hint at the court’s thinking. Much like the argument put forth by the Coalition for TJ, the plaintiffs in the case against Harvard claimed that the university’s admissions policies are biased against Asian American applications. Harvard initially won the lawsuit filed by Students For Fair Admissions, a group representing Asian American applicants but founded by a conservative white opponent of affirmative action.

Now, the lawsuit is being revived, alongside a similar case against the University of North Carolina. Although the Supreme Court currently has a conservative supermajority, the fact that it did not side with the plaintiffs in the Thomas Jefferson case indicates that the majority of justices may not be ready to end all efforts to increase diversity in access to education.

There are, however, important differences between the cases. Although the Fairfax County School Board was upfront about its goal to increase diversity, it claims that the methods it has adopted do not take race into account, which is different than Harvard’s policies that explicitly allow for race to be a factor in evaluating applications.

Even though the Supreme Court did not immediately strike down Thomas Jefferson High School’s policies, it could still rule that the policies of schools like Harvard and UNC unfairly use race more explicitly. Thus, the legal debate over race-aware admissions is far from over, and court watchers will likely continue to look for clues on how the Supreme Court may rule this fall.