Scientists are monitoring an asteroid with a 2% chance of colliding with Earth in 2032, but they say there is no cause for alarm.
According to NASA and the European Space Agency, asteroid 2024 YR4 was first spotted on Dec. 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System in Río Hurtado, Chile. The asteroid, estimated to measure 130 to 300 feet wide, has a 98% chance of missing Earth on Dec. 22, 2032.
When did it initially caught the attention of astronomers?
The asteroid initially caught the attention of astronomers on Dec. 31, 2024, when it rose on the NASA automated Sentry risk list, according to the federal agency. This list provides information about asteroids and their probability of hitting Earth. As of the latest update on Jan. 29, the asteroid still has a slight chance of making any real impact.
If an asteroid hits, it could impact large populated areas
“An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region,” per the ESA. However, scientists are paying close attention to the potential damage it could cause if a collision occurs in higher populated areas.
If that happens, it could “be truly catastrophic,” CBS News space consultant Bill Harwood said.
“It wouldn’t be something like the rock that killed the dinosaurs,” Harwood said. “It wouldn’t affect the global climate, but it would certainly be a disaster of every proportion. So we’re all hoping that doesn’t happen.”
ESA mentioned asteroid 2024 YR4 is rated at Level 3 out of 10 on the International Astronomical Union’s Torino Impact Hazard Scale. When the meteor reaches this category, it is known as a “close encounter” that calls for attention from astronomers and the public.
According to the International Asteroid Warning Network, if the asteroid does hit, it could affect areas across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
The thought of an asteroid impact may be unsettling, especially given the size of 2024 YR4, but experts say there’s no reason to panic, as the chances of a collision remain low.
“The majority of near-Earth objects have orbits that don’t bring them very close to Earth, and therefore pose no risk of impact, but a small fraction of them – called potentially hazardous asteroids – require more attention,” according to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
