A new economic model has predicted a landslide victory for President Donald Trump in the 2020 election.

“If economic conditions then are the same as they are today – it is predicting that the Republican candidate will win,” the model’s author, Donal Luskin, says. “If the candidate is incumbent Donald J. Trump, he will win by a margin of 294 electoral college votes. If the candidate is someone else, say, Michael Pence, he would win by 214 electoral college votes.”

The model is largely predicated on economic predictors.

The President’s approval rating currently sits at 45 percent, but with low gas prices, rising wages and the typical advantages of an incumbent presidency, the model places Trump at a huge lead.

“The economy is just so damn strong right now, and by all historical precedent, the incumbent should run away with it,” said Luskin. “I just don’t see how the Blue wall could resist all that.”

Luskin's firm, TrendMacro, correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 presidential victory, when most polls did not.


Generally, models designed by economists and market strategists like Luskin tend to ignore election polls and the personal characteristics of individual candidates. Instead, they take into account historical trends and factor in key economic data, including growth rates, wages, unemployment, inflation and gas prices, to predict voting behavior and election outcomes.

However, Trump could see trouble if the economy slows markedly between now and next fall, as many analysts predict it will.

“A GOP candidate could not survive even a mild recession,” Luskin said. “Because it would come on the heels of today’s very hot economy. Conventional ‘business cycle’ thinking says a recession is long overdue.”

Additionally, legal bombshells could completely explode any predictions based on the current scenario. Trump has already managed to party lose the House in 2018, despite a strong economy. So Lumpkin’s model could wind up wrong this time around.

Let’s hope.

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