With Election Day on Tuesday, campaigns, pundits and voters have been sorting through the last round of polling data to try to figure out which candidate has winning momentum ahead of Tuesday. The final polls have included some surprising results, but also show how close this election remains.

Iowa poll puts Harris ahead in conservative state

The most surprising poll in recent months was released from Iowa, showing Harris with a lead over Trump in what has been considered a solidly Red state. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll has Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters, a category that includes people who have already voted early. This is a reversal from September, when the poll showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris, and is a large swing from June, when Trump led President Joe Biden, then the presumed Democratic candidate, by 18 points. The latest Iowa poll also points out that Democrats are leading Republicans in two of Iowa’s four congressional districts as well.

Former President Donald Trump dismissed the Iowa poll as “one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time,” while pointing to other polling data that shows him maintaining a lead in Iowa.

Others have pointed out that Selzer & Company, the agency that conducted the Iowa poll that puts Harris ahead there, “has been insanely accurate” in past elections.

Pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Company, attributes the shift toward Harris in part to the impact of women voters being mobilized for Democrats as a result of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and Iowa’s restrictive six-week abortion ban.

Swing states too close to call; Harris, Trump make demographic gains

The Iowa poll was surprising, as that state has not been considered one of the seven swing states that have been expected to be key in determining the outcome of the election. A recent round of polling conducted by The New York Times and Siena College show those states still too close to call. The latest data, collected between Oct. 24 and Nov. 2, shows Harris leading in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin; Trump ahead in Arizona; and the candidates tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania. For all seven states, however, the results are all within or close to the poll’s margin of error.

National polls demonstrate a large gender gap between Trump, who does significantly better with men, and Harris, who polls more strongly with women. This gap may reflect both a female Democratic nominee and the issue of abortion rights, both of which have been mobilizing forces for women across the country. Trump, meanwhile, appears to have made small gains with Black men and possibly larger gains with Latino voters, though the recent controversial comments about Puerto Rico at a Trump rally may chip into those latter gains.

With a late change in the Democratic candidate, Harris emerging as the first Black woman to head a major party ticket, and Trump surviving two assassination attempts while facing unprecedented legal trouble, the 2024 presidential race has been unlike any other in United States history. With so many surprises and twists in this election campaign, it won’t be clear until Tuesday — and perhaps not for days after that — how these events have impacted voters’ choice for the next president.

2024 presidential electionDonald trumpIowaKamala HarrisPolls