Karen Bass, a Democrat who has represented California’s 37^th District since 2011, is a major force in California and a prominent face within Black Democratic leadership nationally. Her constituency includes areas of Los Angeles County such as Inglewood and Crenshaw. If elected, Bass will make history as the first woman and first Black woman to lead Los Angeles, and the city will become the largest American city ever led by a Black woman.

Bass, who announced her candidacy last September, was long considered the frontrunner in the mayor’s race due to her high profile and her work and leadership with Black communities and other people of color who together make up the majority of Los Angeles residents. Bass led the Congressional Black Caucus from 2019 to 2021. Bass was even on the shortlist to become Joe Biden‘s running mate for the 2020 presidential election. She was the primary negotiator within the House for the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act. As recently as February, Bass was polling ahead of all other candidates in the mayor’s race.

However, Bass began to lose her lead in recent months to Caruso, who only declared his candidacy in January. This was a surprising development for many reasons beyond Caruso’s late entry into the race. Caruso was a registered Republican until he changed his affiliation to Democrat when he began running for mayor, and many thought that his conservative past would hurt his chances among the liberal LA constituency.

Caruso also has significantly less political experience than Bass. His highest-profile position was serving for five years on the Los Angeles Police Commission, and he has been criticized for missing meetings and exaggerating his accomplishments from the commission. Yet Caruso used his billion-dollar wealth, tough-on-crime message and celebrity endorsements to jump to the top of the race.

With 50 percent of election results reported as of Wednesday evening, Caruso was slightly ahead of Bass in the vote count, 42% to 37%. He also benefited from a larger climate that is more favorable to conservative messages. Tuesday’s results also saw San Francisco vote to recall progressive District Attorney Chesa Boudin because of similar concerns about crime and homelessness that motivated LA voters as well.

Many pundits assumed that Bass would be the heavy favorite among Black voters due to her local and national records. Yet Caruso was able to secure several high-profile endorsements in the celebrity-heavy LA community, including hip-hop icon Snoop Dogg and music mogul Clarence Avant. One LA Times columnist called this the “Ice Cube effect,” drawing similarities to the former NWA member’s 2020 defection from the Democratic Party due to what he claimed was a lack of support from the party for Black men.

Although Black people only make up 13% of LA voters, they remain an essential constituency, especially for a Black woman running against a wealthy and well-connected white businessman. If Caruso can attract enough Black voters while also appealing to white LA residents through his tough-on-crime rhetoric, he has a chance of winning the run-off election.

For her part, Bass seems confident of her chances in November. In her only Twitter message after the results of Tuesday’s election were announced, Bass simply said “THANK YOU LOS ANGELES! Onward to November!” and linked to her campaign website.

THANK YOU LOS ANGELES!

Onward to November!https://t.co/536QOyOzG3 pic.twitter.com/gjuo6jprvj

— Karen Bass (@KarenBassLA) June 8, 2022

Bass will have plenty of time to cement her support among Black voters and Los Angeles residents more generally between now and November. But facing a surging and well-funded opponent in Caruso, she’ll have to work to regain lost ground if she hopes to make history in LA.