As families around the country try to fit in their last holidays of the year, COVID-19 is making its next big comeback. Health surveillance systems reported increases or likely increases in infections in 47 states in late August 2026, mainly due to increases in the South and West. The national wastewater surveillance (WastewaterSCAN) indicated an increase in SARS-CoV-2 concentration to the “high” level, with August surveillance results showing concentrations more than 105% higher than those in July, reports USA Today.

COVID-19 has established a unique biannual pattern, with separate summer and winter surges, unlike other respiratory pathogens such as influenza or RSV, which more clearly peak during the cold winter months. Public health officials have pointed out that the number of emergency room visits and serious hospitalizations is overall not that high, especially compared to previous emergencies. Still, the continued rise in community transmission should not be ignored.

Does COVID spread faster in the summer?

During warmer weather, when cases are rising, there are common public misconceptions that the heat will kill respiratory viruses and that the risk of transmission would be gone.

This thinking is usually accompanied by the assumption that the increase in warm weather is a sign of an uncontrollable emergency surge or a new, highly virulent variant that renders current immunity ineffective. Public opinion tends to be at extremes this summer, either dismissing the virus entirely or becoming very anxious about the virus returning to the initial lockdown situation.

What the science actually says

Dr. Justus Rabach, MD, tells Blavity Health, “As epidemiologists stress, it is actually a summertime ‘wave’ to be expected, not a runaway epidemic, as a mix of human activities and natural viral evolution has led to the rise in cases.”

Data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show that summer surges usually start in early to mid-July and peak in September. There are several important reasons for this “vicious circle”:

  • Indoor Aggregation: In the summer, high temperatures can bring large numbers of people indoors into closed spaces with air conditioning and recirculating air, which can help spread the virus via aerosols.
  • Waning Immunity: Neutralizing antibodies from post-infection or vaccination wane naturally after four to six months, making people vulnerable to less severe reinfections in late summer.
  • Viral Evolution: Newer subvariants of SARS-CoV-2 have also developed small changes in the spike protein, enabling them to partially escape mucosal immune protection.
  • Back-to-School Mingling: Newer subvariants of SARS-CoV-2 have also developed small changes in the spike protein, enabling them to partially escape mucosal immune protection.

Is there going to be another pandemic?

SARS-CoV-2 is still bringing waves, and global health bodies track viral evolution to see the bigger picture of pandemic risk.

PubMed Central classifies the emergence of an unknown pathogen, also known as “Disease X,” as a constant biological threat due to zoonotic spillovers, climate change and global travel.

But regarding COVID-19, high levels of baseline population immunity from vaccination, maternal antibody transfer and prior exposures have transformed the virus from a novel pandemic threat into an endemic, predictable pathogen with recurrent seasonal waves.

The real risks

Although severity is low across the country, a summertime surge can bring true clinical risks for certain vulnerable populations.

The Mayo Clinic states that older people (over the age of 65), babies under six months and people with weakened immune systems or complex underlying conditions still face a high risk of severe illness, secondary bacterial pneumonia and hospitalization in all phases of the epidemic. In addition, there is a persistent risk for post-acute sequelae (PAS) or long COVID after repeated breakthrough infections.

If you have a scratchy throat, runny nose or fatigue in the summer, don’t blame it on the air conditioning or allergies. Perform a rapid antigen test immediately and increase ventilation by opening windows during cooler times, or use portable HEPA air purifiers to safeguard family members at higher risk.

How serious is the new COVID strain?

The increased transmissibility and immune evasiveness of the current variants in the late summer 2026 wave are not matched by clinical data of increased intrinsic disease severity.

Like previous Omicron variants, the predominant subvariants most commonly present with upper respiratory illness, including sore throat, nasal congestion, mild fever, headache and muscle pain, according to the CDC.

These breakthrough infections are generally not as severe as previous infections in the general healthy population. But timely access to prescription oral antivirals (like Paxlovid) for those who are eligible and at high risk of developing severe disease is still essential.

Bottom line

Each summer, COVID spreads in an indoor air-conditioned setting, the population’s immunity wanes and the virus makes subtle changes, enabling transmission to increase. National hospitalization rates are still relatively low compared to winter months, but older people and those with compromised immune systems are still at risk of complications. However, the best way to deal with warm weather to increase safety is to follow the principle of proportionate vigilance, test when sick, increase indoor airflow and seek medical advice on new vaccines or antiviral medications.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is COVID on the rise in the US?

Yes, national wastewater monitoring and CDC metrics indicate that COVID-19 infections have trended upward across 47 states during the late summer months of 2026.

What country suffered the least from COVID?

Isolated island nations that implemented rapid border closures and robust early containment measures, such as New Zealand, Iceland and Bhutan, recorded among the lowest excess mortality rates and per capita death tolls during the pandemic’s early years.

Citations

Walrath-Holdridge M. COVID’s annual summer wave is back. Here’s what’s behind it. USA TODAY. Published August 22, 2026. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2026/08/22/covid-summer-surge-2026-cases-rising-across-us/91391753007/

CDC. 2026 COVID-19 Summer Outlook. CFA: Qualitative Assessments. Published June 12, 2026. https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/data-research/2026covid-19outlook.html

Mpakosi A, Cholevas V, Lianou A, et al. Targeting Zoonotic Spillover Drivers for Global Pandemic Prevention: A Narrative Review. Microorganisms. 2026;14(6):1316. doi:10.3390/microorganisms14061316

Mayo Clinic. Pneumonia. Mayo Clinic. Published June 13, 2020. https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/pneumonia/symptoms-causes/syc-20354204

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Symptoms of COVID-19. COVID-19. Published June 25, 2024. https://www.cdc.gov/covid/signs-symptoms/index.html