Democratic candidate James Talarico is gaining momentum in Texas’ competitive Senate race, with new polling, prediction market data and fundraising groups suggesting the contest could become more challenging ahead of the November midterm elections.
What are prediction market platforms saying about Talarico’s position in the U.S. Senate race?
Prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi now show Democrats with significantly improved odds of winning the Texas Senate seat compared with earlier this year. On Polymarket, Democrats had a 47% chance of winning the race, compared with 30% in early March, according to Newsweek.
Republicans’ chances dropped from 71% to 55% during the same period. Kalshi showed similar movement, placing Democratic chances near 45%.
The shift shows growing Democratic optimism about competing in Texas in 2026 as President Donald Trump faces declining approval ratings and Democrats outperform expectations nationwide ahead of the midterm elections. Republicans, meanwhile, are defending narrow congressional majorities that Democrats hope to flip, potentially limiting Trump’s political agenda.
Several polls show Talarico holding slim leads against Republican contenders
Recent polling indicates that Talarico is gaining ground in the race, but this doesn’t necessarily determine the overall outcome. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll conducted in April found Talarico leading Republican contenders, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn, in the hypothetical matchups. The survey showed Talarico leading Paxton by eight and Cornyn by seven, although a small number of voters remain undecided.
Another poll by Texas Public Opinion Research also showed Talarico narrowly leading both Republicans, though within the survey’s margins of error. Other polls, including surveys from the University of Houston and Emerson College, showed tighter races, with Cornyn holding slim leads or Paxton tied with Talarico.
According to poll results, Talarico’s gains appear driven by support from moderates and independent voters, but Democrats have largely been behind his candidacy. Republicans are still divided in a contentious primary runoff between Cornyn and Paxton, scheduled for May 26. The winner will face Talarico in Texas’ U.S. Senate race.
Should billionaires and super PACs support political races?
Talarico’s campaign has faced scrutiny over the role wealthy donors, organizations and super political action committees are playing in supporting his candidacy, despite his repeated criticism of billionaire influence in politics, according to the Austin American-Statesman.
He has emphasized that he doesn’t accept contributions from corporate PACs and has called for a ban on super PACs altogether. However, a pro-Talarico super PAC called Lone Star Rising has raised approximately $9 million from wealthy Democratic donors and dark-money groups, per the Austin American-Statesman.
Nearly half of the PAC’s funding came from Government That Works, a dark-money organization that doesn’t publicly disclose many of its contributors under federal election rules.
Talarico has repeatedly sought to distance himself from the outside group, arguing that federal law prohibits candidates from coordinating with super PACs and that he has no control over how such organizations spend money.
“Legally, I cannot do anything about what any super PAC does, whether supporting me or not supporting me,” Talarico told reporters at a recent campaign appearance, per the newspaper. “We’ve got super PACs on all sides. We’ve got super PACs in the middle that are playing on both sides. It’s nothing that we have control over.”
Republicans have accused Talarico of hypocrisy, arguing he benefits from the same political fundraising system he condemns.
“James Talarico is a total hypocrite and just another sleazy politician for sale to the highest bidder,” Zach Kraft, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, said in a statement.
Both Cornyn and Paxton have gained support from PAC donors, but Lone Star Rising is one of the biggest spenders in the Senate race, according to AdImpact data, the Austin American-Statesman reported.